Case Study
Estimating Volumetric Potential for a New Variant
A leading life care brand in India, with a steady market share after 12 years in the market, was preparing to launch a new variant to accelerate growth and expand its market presence.
Leadership wanted more than just consumer feedback. They needed a volumetric sales potential estimate to know: How big can this variant be? What is realistic performance once launched?
Objectives
- Measure consumer response to the new concept and product.
- Evaluate purchase intent vs. repeat usage intent.
- Identify gaps in positioning or product experience.
- Estimate volumetric sales potential under real-world conditions.
Our Approach
We mirrored the real consumer journey:
- Concept Exposure – Captured first impressions.
- Purchase Intent – Likelihood to buy after hearing the idea.
- In-Home Trial – Tested fit within daily routines.
- Repeat Usage Intent – Gauged interest in buying again post-trial.
- Real-World Adjustments – Modeled in price sensitivity, switching behavior, and excitement bias.
Finally, we combined consumer response data with the brand’s marketing plans (distribution, spend, promotions) to project volumetric sales.
Key Findings
- High trial intent, especially among younger mothers drawn to “fragrance + hygiene.”
- Conversion risk: Repeat usage hinged on fragrance strength and perceived gentleness.
- Price sensitivity flagged as a constraint—premium positioning would require sharper value communication.
- Realistic forecast showed strong short-term trial volumes, tapering to a sustainable but niche share.
The Outcome
We delivered a decision-ready volumetric sales forecast—balancing excitement with realism.
This helped leadership set launch targets, allocate marketing spend, and calibrate expectations.
Because in FMCG, the real question isn’t just “Do consumers like it?”— it’s “How much will it actually sell?”
